Other items with high dependence on China are expected to be adversely affected
In an era of rampant unfairness, a cool-headed and wise response is essential.
As China's global market conquest goes too far, many countries are suffering.
It can be said that all products are subject to this, but especially steel, various raw materials, and automobiles are no exception.
It is said that there is particular concern about factors that will affect future mobility, such as electric vehicles and battery raw materials.
The reason why the US and Europe are most interested in and focused on imposing tariffs on China is because they know the power of automobiles.
An automobile is made up of about 30,000 parts for an internal combustion engine vehicle and about 13,000 to 18,000 parts for an electric vehicle.
In particular, the battery industry is a key future food source that combines more raw materials and advanced technologies.
It can be said to be the center of all industries, with about 500 subcontractors per manufacturer for manufacturing automobile parts, as well as production personnel and various ancillary businesses, and more than one in five people engaged in related industries such as the automobile aftermarket.
The automobile industry was the exclusive domain of advanced countries, but due to the advanced technologies such as engines and transmissions, it is difficult for developing countries to enter the industry.This is the field.
China, too, has been experiencing the same pain and, out of concern that it may lose its high domestic market to advanced countries, has rushed to enter the new mode of transportation, electric vehicles, about 10 years ahead of other countries.
Currently, the level of Chinese electric vehicles and batteries is at the global top level, and in particular, the price-to-quality ratio is at the global top level.
However, China is a socialist country where the principles of market competition have not been democratically established, and there is a lack of transparency due to undesirable methods such as patriotic marketing.
Moreover, it can be said that advanced countries have raised great suspicions due to policies that are highly lacking in transparency, such as large-scale financial support to manufacturers of related industries such as electric vehicles and batteries.
China is a market with a domestic market of about 30 million units out of the global automobile market of about 80 million units, and as it rapidly transitions to an electric vehicle market, it has come to occupy about half of the global electric vehicle market.
With this huge market as a springboard, electric car manufacturers and battery companies that grew with financial support from the Chinese government are now overproducing and are starting to leave China and enter the global market in earnest.
In particular, it is of great concern that excessive support, such as subsidies and incentives for exporters, is leading to a continued low-price offensive in importing countries.
Recently, the US has already been unable to enter the market with tariffs of about 25%, and Europe is starting to suffer as Chinese electric vehicles are taking up a significant portion of the market, with a general tariff of 10% not enough to block it.
Moreover, as global market conquest intensifies, each country's tariff policies aimed at excluding China are beginning to exert their influence.
The economic conflict between the US and China has gone beyond the limit and even ChinaChina began imposing a 100% tariff on electric cars, and Europe also raised its countervailing duties by an average of 31%, bringing the total to over 40%, including the existing tariffs.
Of course, the level of tariffs imposed on each company will vary. In addition, many countries around the world have begun imposing similar tariffs. The so-called 'country first' policy began to spread.
Our country has emerged as a country that focuses primarily on exports, using the relatively small automobile market of about 1.7 million units per year as a test bed.
Therefore, it can be said that the country does not prefer a country-first policy as it values the free trade system to the extent that FTAs and WTOs are important.
Our country is no exception to China's onslaught, and the volume of imports from China has already grown to an excessive level.
Of course, Korea, China, and Japan are the closest countries, but their roles are different, so we can say that they have played different roles while conducting global sourcing.
Recently, various problems such as economic conflicts between the US and China have arisen due to differences in political and ideological characteristics, but historically, the community role of the trade system is inevitable.
Currently, the number of items that depend on China for over 90% has decreased from around 800 in the past to around 500 now, thanks to efforts such as overseas diversification.
The problem of calcium chloride and urea water, which became a social problem several years ago in the domestic market, is an issue that became a serious problem domestically when exports of items that are not cutting-edge industries but are almost 100% dependent on China were blocked by China.
This means that there are over 500 such concerns, and the number of items that have a significant impact on the national economy, such as rare earth elements, is innumerable.
It is something that can be used as a power item to exert influence at will by the Chinese government.
In this situation, representative Chinese passenger electric vehicles such as BYD are scheduled to be imported from the beginning of the year.
There are more than one or two Chinese companies, led by BYD, waiting to enter the domestic market.
Chinese electric buses already have a 50% market share, and the market share of electric commercial vehicles is also increasing more than expected.
Even in the cutting-edge automobile industry, it is being overrun by Chinese products.
It is likely that the share of various Chinese products in the domestic market will increase further in the future.
Moreover, the situation in which China's share of electric vehicles and batteries, which drive the domestic economy, is increasing is a matter of growing concern.
The government is currently considering imposing countervailing duties on Chinese electric vehicles that are imported with invisible, excessive financial support, similar to those in the United States and Europe.
Of course, the priority is on the company's request for an investigation into the product rather than fair competition, but in the current domestic situation, the offensive of Chinese electric vehicles is raising concerns.
Is it really possible for the government to impose countervailing duties on Chinese electric vehicles? The Chinese authorities have already issued a warning after hearing about this. It can be said that it is also a warning not to proceed recklessly and lose everything.
Of course, imposing countervailing duties is a legitimate defense method against unfair trade between countries.
However, realistically, the recent situation is that the international order is collapsing and we are entering an era where the logic of the powerful countries is taking effect. Even when a country regulates in a legitimate manner, it is not uncommon for the other country to impose retaliatory tariffs for absurd reasons, devastating the country.
About 10 years ago, there were cases where domestic companies produced batteries in China, but did not provide support to Chinese batteries produced locally while providing resources to Chinese domestic battery companies.
Of course, since it is made in China, it should have received the same support since it was made in a Chinese production system, Chinese production personnel were mobilized, and Chinese raw materials were used, but the reason for not receiving support was because it was a ternary lithium-ion battery, NCM battery, and so support was not provided.
This is an unfair case where they are citing the ternary battery as an excuse because it is a Korean company, even though it is clearly a Chinese product and not an imported product, and is not persuasive.
Would it be possible for something to be improved even if someone dared to appeal to the international community that this was unfair? It would be impossible. We can say that we live in an era where powerful countries wield their influence at will, as in these cases.
Is it really possible for our government to impose countervailing duties on Chinese electric vehicles? Perhaps it is because there are too many weapons that wield lethal swords, not just the number of elements.
If China were to implement just a few strategic measures that could have a fatal impact on the entire economy and industry due to a single electric vehicle, it would be extremely difficult for us to withstand them right away.
Even if you fully understand the current situation, it will absolutely not help you in the medium to long term.
Will Hyundai Motor Group actually request an investigation based on Chinese electric vehicles? This is a task that needs to be carefully considered and carried out.
If Chinese electric vehicles and batteries, which have grown illegally with the Chinese government's protection, attack our competitive models at extremely low prices, we may lose some of our market.
This is already the case with Chinese electric buses.
Currently, LFP batteries are receiving low subsidies for energy density and environmental factors, etc., in line with the FTA or WTO, but the price difference is not significant.
Countervailing duties are one of the weapons we can use, but as mentioned earlier, these can become weapons of mutual destruction.
The point is that we should not be picky about the means, but we should find a clever and legal way.
Of course, in an era where an unfair global society is rampant and it is questionable whether a normal confrontation with illegal growth companies is possible, it is a time when we need to think about our own concerns. Let us respond in an extremely cool and wise manner.