2024년 글로벌 리튬 자원 생산량은 전년 대비 28% 증가한 135만톤으로 전망되며, 전세계적인 감산 추세 등의 영향으로 공급 과잉양이 18만톤으로 연초 예상보다는 줄어들 것으로 전망된다는 전문가의 분석이 제기됐다.

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2024 Lithium Production ↑28% YoY… 33% Increase in African Production
Oversupply of 250,000 tons expected at the beginning of the year… Global production reduction trend readjusted to 180,000 tons Global lithium resource production in 2024 is expected to increase by 28% year-on-year to 1.35 million tons, and experts predict that the oversupply will decrease to 180,000 tons compared to the initial estimate due to the global production reduction trend.
Korea Mining Industry Research Institute (KOMIR) and China Antaike jointly held the '2024 China Battery Mineral Market Trend Seminar' at the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry on May 30, sharing the current status of lithium mines in Australia, Africa, the Americas, and China.
“In 2024, production cuts and cost control will be the key topics for lithium mines,” said Fan Runze, a senior expert on lithium and cathode materials at Antaike, who gave the presentation. “A lithium oversupply of 250,000 tons was forecasted in early 2024, but it is expected to decrease to 180,000 tons due to the global production cut trend.”
Projects such as Finniss, Greenbushes and Cattlin in Australia are planning to cut production, while some projects in the Americas are seeing production start delays.
Holland, Kathleen Valley, Zulu and Goulamina The new project is progressing as scheduled and is expected to contribute to increasing overseas lithium spodumene production to 170,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in 2024.
In 2023, global lithium resource production was estimated at approximately 1.5 million tons in lithium carbonate equivalent, with lithium spodumene accounting for 48%, salt lakes 37%, and lithium mica 10%.
Global lithium resource production is projected to increase 28% year-on-year to 1.35 million tonnes in 2024, with one-third of the increase expected to come from Africa.
Global demand is expected to reach a total of 750,000 tons, including 750,000 tons for batteries, 150,000 tons for ESS, 70,000 tons for home appliances, 150,000 tons for traditional demand, and 50,000 tons for others.
Senior expert Fan Runze then reported on the current status of lithium production in regions such as Australia and Africa.
■ Australia
The main increases in Australian lithium concentrate production in 2024 are forecast to come primarily from expansions at P680 and Mt Marion, the resumption of production at the Mt Wodgina and Bald mines, the start of production at Mt Kathleen and the ramp-up at Mt Holland.
In particular, Mt Kathleen and Mt Holland are the two major new mines with a combined lithium concentrate capacity of 880,000 tonnes.
Australian lithium concentrate production in 2024 is projected to be 450,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate, up 50,000 tonnes from the previous year.
■ Africa
The Arcadia, Bikita, Sabi Star and Kamativi mines in Zimbabwe, which China has invested in, are set to start production in 2023, while the Ganfeng Lithiu mine in Mali is expected to start production in 2024.m's Goulamina project is also nearing production.
If current production plans are followed, lithium concentrate production in Africa is expected to exceed 1 million tonnes in 2024.
This is equivalent to 150,000 to 160,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a 200% increase over the previous year.
■ America
Canada's Sigma Lithium is expected to increase lithium concentrate capacity at its Grota do Cirilo project from the current 270,000 tonnes to 520,000 tonnes with the addition of a second production line in Brazil.
Lithium concentrate production in 2023 was 105,000 tons.
Germany's AMG Lithium also produced 95,000 tonnes of lithium concentrate in Brazil in 2023 and aims to produce 130,000 tonnes in 2024.
The NAL mine in Canada, owned by Sayona Quebec, a joint venture between Piedmont Lithium and Sayona Mining with a 25:75 ratio, produced about 100,000 tonnes of lithium concentrate in 2023, and production is expected to reach 140,000 to 160,000 tonnes in 2024.
In 2023, 43,000 tons of lithium carbonate were produced, and it is expected that this will increase by 55% year-on-year to 70,000 tons in 2024.
■ South American salt lakes
Salt lakes are concentrated in Chile and Argentina, with new projects in Argentina in particular worth keeping an eye on.
Cauchari-Olaroz, SDLA and Rincon are the major salt lake projects currently underway, as well as Zijin Mining's 3Q, Eramet's Centenario and Ganfeng Lithium's Mariana projects.It is under construction and production is expected to begin in 2024.
Last year, lithium carbonate produced from salt lakes in Chile and Argentina amounted to 23,300 tons and 4,500 tons, respectively.
In 2024, it is expected to increase by 7% and 131% year-on-year to 25,000 tons and 14,000 tons, respectively.
■ China
While China's spodimium projects are progressing slowly, the major projects include the Jiaka mine (80,000 tonnes per year), Lijiagou mine (180,000 tonnes per year) and Yelonggou mine (50,000 tonnes per year).
Future increases will be notable for the Xinjiang Dahongliutan project, which is scheduled to be completed by the end of 2024 and is expected to produce 600,000 tonnes per year.
Lithium mica production has been facing environmental and high-cost issues, which has put the brakes on capacity expansion.
Future expansion is expected to come primarily from CATL's Jianxiawo mine in China's Jiangxi province, Jiangtie Motor's Qianxi lithium mine in the same province, and Zijin Mining's Xiangyuan lithium mine in Hunan province.
Production from salt lakes in China is mainly carried out in Qarhan, Yiliping, Zhabuye, East/West Taijinar and Dachaidan, with Qarhan Salt Lake boasting the largest capacity among them.
China's 2024 production is expected to reach a total of 275,000 tons, including 25,000 tons of lithium carbonate extracted from spodium, 110,000 tons of lithium mica, and 140,000 tons from salt lakes.
Global new energy vehicle sales in 2023 are expected to reach 13.27 million units, up 33.8% year-on-year.
If this trend continues, sales in 2024 will be 1.65It is expected to increase to 00,000.
Assuming that one vehicle has a capacity of 55 kWh, the total expected capacity of lithium-ion batteries is 907 GWh, equivalent to 750,000 tons.
ESS accounts for 10% of carbonate concentrate consumption.
Demand for ESS is growing rapidly amidst significant fluctuations in demand for new energy vehicles, but the marginal impact on lithium carbonate prices has eased.
The demand for lithium-ion batteries for ESS is estimated at 185 GWh in 2023 and is expected to increase to 250 GWh in 2024.
This corresponds to a conservative estimate of 140,000 to 160,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate demand in the energy storage battery sector.
“Demand and supply will double, disrupting supply, and if demand exceeds expectations, prices may surge,” said senior analyst Fan Runze, referring to the continued volatility seen in the lithium outlook going forward.