It was analyzed that export and technology regulations related to cutting-edge industries such as semiconductors and AI that have continued since the Biden administration are actually guaranteeing the growth momentum of Chinese industries. It was found that the increasing proportion of sales to China by global equipment companies and regulatory pressure from U.S. semiconductor, AI, and cloud companies are intersecting, and market fragmentation centered on China is expected.

The Korea Semiconductor Industry Association (KSIA) held the 2025 1st System Semiconductor Forum on the 20th and presented semiconductor industry policies under the theme of ‘Present and Future of the U.S. Semiconductor Strategy.’

Kim Hyuk-joong, a research fellow at the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, pointed out in a presentation that day that “the most notable part of Trump’s remarks was that he would scrap the Semiconductor Act, which was the Biden administration’s franchise bill,” and mentioned a move to reduce support for semiconductors.

On the other hand, the contrasting situation between the US and China was captured when he said, “As demand for AI in China is activated, Chinese foundries are manufacturing self-designed semiconductors, which requires more use of Chinese equipment.”

■ Semiconductor Industry Expects Trump Administration to Eliminate Biden Regulations

While the abolition of semiconductor support poses risks to the industry, the industry is expecting the Trump administration to abolish regulations, as regulations on AI semiconductor exports and cloud services that have been squeezing semiconductor companies may lead to excessive growth suppression and leaks of sensitive information.

In the past, semiconductor exports were regulated based on computational performance, but with the abolition of the 600 GB/s requirement in October 2023, the scope of AI semiconductor regulations has expanded more comprehensively. Recently, the scope of control has expanded further, and HBM has also come under the control of the United States, Commissioner Kim assessed.

Commissioner Kim predicted several Biden administration regulations that the Trump administration is expected to eliminate, saying, “There are aspects of regulations that create AI semiconductor quotas and limit semiconductor imports to certain countries that infringe on companies’ business rights and violate confidentiality.”

These regulations have the aspect of violating sensitive corporate information, such as having to report sales data to the U.S. Department of Commerce, so attention is focused on how Trump, an advocate of deregulation, will accept them. This is one of the reasons why they are emerging as a point of interest on April 2, the day Trump announces reciprocal tariffs.

In addition, it was revealed that the regulations that increase the burden on representative American companies include technology export control for AI models and cloud service control that prohibits AI model training by regulatory agencies. This is explained as a factor that reasonably expects the Trump administration to abolish corporate regulations.

■ China, despite US restraint, sweep up cutting-edge equipment

Despite the current U.S. sanctions on semiconductor equipment exports to China, Commissioner Kim analyzed Chinese customs statistics and performance figures of advanced semiconductor equipment companies such as ASML and TEL, and assessed that Chinese manufacturers are observed hoarding equipment.

In the exposure equipment sector, it was confirmed that over $100 million worth of equipment was imported into Shandong Province in 2024, and it was assumed that even high-end equipment was imported, and it was added that this was cross-verified with corporate performance data. In 2024, ASML and TEL's sales to China are expected to reach 40%.

Commissioner Kim, who observed that this trend was also observed in American companies, emphasized that “China does not manufacture 40% of the world’s semiconductors, so it is unlikely that it would import 40% of the equipment,” suggesting that preemptive selling is taking place from a long-term perspective.

Commissioner Kim said, “For Chinese companies, U.S. export controls and regulations are the same as being granted an exclusive business license in China,” and analyzed, “Chinese companies should use this opportunity to overcome various challenges and improve their level of semiconductor design and manufacturing.”

Accordingly, as AI applications and models such as DeepSearch are currently developing and special-purpose semiconductors are also being produced in abundance, it is predicted that there will be opportunities for various companies to seek opportunities in the Nvidia dictatorship. If China's own ecosystem is established and fragmentation deepens, a diversified system in the semiconductor market is also sufficiently envisioned.